Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.