Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”